Latino Electoral Muscle

This election year Hispanics loom as a crucial swing vote

by John Rosales

The same brand loyalty Latinos have for toothpaste and laundry detergent keeps them returning to the Clinton name, says former NEA Hispanic Caucus chair, Bob Munoz.

“The majority of us (Latinos) are still stuck on the Clintons,” says Munoz, a teacher at Grace Warner Elementary School in Reno, Nevada. “Latino loyalties run deep and strong. We stick with our friends because that’s what our parents taught us.”

For Campaign ’08, the more Hispanic friends that the nominees have, the better their chances to win the White House. Hispanics are the nation’s largest and fastest growing minority group. At 46 million, they represent about 15 percent of the U.S. population.  

According to a recent study by the Pew Hispanic Center, Hispanics “loom as a potential swing vote.” In “Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?,” researchers found that 57 percent of Hispanic registered voters identify themselves as Democrats or say they lean to the Democratic Party, while 23 percent align with the Republican Party.

While notable for its population size, Latinos comprise only 9 percent of the eligible electorate nationwide, and will be about 6.5 percent of those who turn out to vote in November, according to Pew.

The electoral muscle of Latinos is further weakened because many are not citizens or are under the voting age of 18. Despite these modest numbers, researchers find Hispanics constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004 – New Mexico (where Hispanics make up 37 percent of the state’s eligible electorate); Florida (14 percent); Colorado (12 percent) and Nevada (12 percent). All four are expected to be closely contested.

Munoz and other Latino leaders in Nevada recently met with Democratic party chair Howard Dean to discuss ways that Democrats could be more responsive to Latinos.

“Campaigns should advertise in Spanish or show some cultural awareness,” Munoz says. “At the same time, Latinos must participate more in the political process.”

He cites outreach efforts by Sen. Barack Obama with his "Viva Obama" video and “Si, Se Puede (Yes, We Can)!” campaign slogan. Bill Clinton scored points with Latinos when he spoke with Spanish-language radio host Eddie "El Piolin" Sotelo and declared that Latinos would "determine the nominee of the Democratic Party and the next president of the United States."

 Before dropping out of the race in January, New Mexico Gov. Richardson was the first Latino to seek the Democratic presidential nomination.

“I always liked him,” Munoz says. “We’re from the same culture, but I wasn’t sure he would make as good a president as Hillary.”  

More important than loyalty and cultural affiliation, Munoz says, is for candidates to include Latino leaders from Congress, national Latino organizations and hometown associations in meetings that will shape their campaign agenda and government policies. When Latinos aren’t included in the inner circles of campaigns, for example, there can be a cost.

“I heard someone from a campaign call us (Latinos) the Tortilla Vote, and the Whole Enchilada,” says Munoz. “They wouldn’t say that about any other group, or if one of us was around to explain how demeaning that is.”

Munoz says immigration policy is close to the hearts of Latinos, but so is increasing the minimum wage, universal health insurance, health care reform, rising fuel costs, and expanding early childhood education.

“Our issues are mainstream issues,” he says.

As an educator, Munoz also looks at where a candidate stands on education issues, such as paying teachers a starting salary of $40,000 and education support professionals a living wage, and increasing federal education funding, which Clinton and Obama both support.

Based on his voting records and statements in the media, the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, opposes an increase in federal education funding, and failed to respond to an NEA questionnaire seeking his stance on a number of issues of interest including increasing pay for educators.

In “New Dimensions of Latino Participation,” a report by the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute, researchers find that in 2008, “the Hispanic vote is “persuadable – that is, not yet locked in to either major political party.” However, the study confirms that “there is strong evidence that the Hispanic community is moving toward the Democratic Party.”

“Latinos will respond when the message is right,” Munoz says. “If Obama picked Richardson as his running mate - that would send a message. But I don’t know if that would be a viable ticket. I’m going to wait and see.”